Condoleezza Rice has a scarifying op-ed in the Washington Post today in which she argues correctly that the Middle East may be on the brink of a rejiggering of borders–and, incorrectly, that if we don’t become more active diplomatically, Iran will be the big winner.

Rice is a Russia expert. I’m not sure how much she knows about the Middle East. Presumably, she knows that there is an ethnic chasm between Iranians and Arabs–Iranians are Persian, and tend to disdain their Arab neighbors–that might limit Iran’s long-term appeal in the region (short-term, Iran’s ability to provide weaponry and money to Shi’ites–and occasional radical groups like Hamas–will be a force for mayhem).

Rice also has insufficient respect for history and geography, and an anachronistic optimism about America’s ability to control events in the region.